Forecast Comparison: PirateWeather vs Aeris vs BOM
Fairview Cadarga — Generated 13 April 2026 20:00 AEST —
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Sunday, 12 April 2026
Day-before forecast (lead 1) vs full day actual.
PirateWeather
snapshot 00:00
Aeris
BOM
snapshot 00:00
Actual (Station)
Max Temp
27.2°C (-0.2)
28.9°C (+1.5)
29.0°C (+1.6)
27.4°C
Min Temp
16.5°C (+2.0)
10.0°C (-4.5)
16.0°C (+1.5)
14.5°C
Wind (avg)
13.3 km/h (+2.3)
14.0 km/h (+3.0)
12.6 km/h (+1.6)
11.0 km/h
Wind (gust)
27.8 km/h (-11.1)
25.0 km/h (-13.9)
28.0 km/h (-10.9)
38.9 km/h
Rain
0.0 pts (+0.0) 0%
0.0 pts (+0.0) 0%
0.0 pts (+0.0) 0%
0.0 pts
Rain type
none ✓
none ✓
none ✓
none
Wins
3/6
2/6
5/6
—
BOM closest overall
Sunday, 12 April 2026 — forecast by lead day (6 days out → same day)
Lead
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
8 Apr (lead 4)
0.4 pts (+0.4)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
9 Apr (lead 3)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
10 Apr (lead 2)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
11 Apr (lead 1)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
12 Apr (lead 0, same day)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
Actual
0.0 pts
Lead
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
8 Apr (lead 4)
26.8°C (-0.6)
28.9°C (+1.5)
29.0°C (+1.6)
9 Apr (lead 3)
26.8°C (-0.6)
28.5°C (+1.1)
29.0°C (+1.6)
10 Apr (lead 2)
26.0°C (-1.4)
28.7°C (+1.3)
29.0°C (+1.6)
11 Apr (lead 1)
27.2°C (-0.2)
28.9°C (+1.5)
29.0°C (+1.6)
12 Apr (lead 0, same day)
26.8°C (-0.6)
28.4°C (+1.0)
29.0°C (+1.6)
Actual
27.4°C
Lead
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
8 Apr (lead 4)
16.3°C (+1.8)
13.3°C (-1.2)
16.0°C (+1.5)
9 Apr (lead 3)
16.6°C (+2.1)
10.2°C (-4.3)
16.0°C (+1.5)
10 Apr (lead 2)
16.1°C (+1.6)
10.5°C (-4.0)
17.0°C (+2.5)
11 Apr (lead 1)
16.5°C (+2.0)
10.0°C (-4.5)
16.0°C (+1.5)
12 Apr (lead 0, same day)
17.3°C (+2.8)
10.5°C (-4.0)
17.0°C (+2.5)
Actual
14.5°C
Lead
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
8 Apr (lead 4)
11.4 km/h (+0.4)
15.0 km/h (+4.0)
12.2 km/h (+1.2)
9 Apr (lead 3)
13.9 km/h (+2.9)
14.0 km/h (+3.0)
12.1 km/h (+1.1)
10 Apr (lead 2)
11.7 km/h (+0.7)
14.0 km/h (+3.0)
12.2 km/h (+1.2)
11 Apr (lead 1)
13.3 km/h (+2.3)
14.0 km/h (+3.0)
12.6 km/h (+1.6)
12 Apr (lead 0, same day)
12.6 km/h (+1.6)
14.0 km/h (+3.0)
12.4 km/h (+1.4)
Actual
11.0 km/h
Hourly Temperature (°C)
Rain Probability (%)
Monday, 13 April 2026 (today)(83% of day)
Yesterday's forecast (lead 1) vs today's actual so far. BOM uses earliest available snapshot for today.
PirateWeather
snapshot 00:00
Aeris
BOM
snapshot 00:00
Actual (Station)
Max Temp
24.6°C (-0.3)
27.1°C (+2.2)
27.0°C (+2.1)
24.9°C
Min Temp
15.2°C (+7.1)
9.7°C (+1.6)
9.0°C (+0.9)
8.1°C
Wind (avg)
12.8 km/h (+2.0)
14.0 km/h (+3.2)
11.5 km/h (+0.7)
10.8 km/h
Wind (gust)
23.6 km/h (-18.9)
25.0 km/h (-17.5)
28.0 km/h (-14.5)
42.5 km/h
Rain
0.0 pts (+0.0) 0%
0.0 pts (+0.0) 0%
0.0 pts (+0.0) 0%
0.0 pts
Rain type
none ✓
none ✓
none ✓
none
Wins
3/6
2/6
5/6
—
BOM closest overall
Monday, 13 April 2026 — forecast by lead day (6 days out → same day)
Lead
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
9 Apr (lead 4)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
10 Apr (lead 3)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
11 Apr (lead 2)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
12 Apr (lead 1)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
13 Apr (lead 0, same day)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
0.0 pts (+0.0)
Actual
0.0 pts
Lead
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
9 Apr (lead 4)
25.9°C (+1.0)
27.8°C (+2.9)
28.0°C (+3.1)
10 Apr (lead 3)
25.0°C (+0.1)
27.3°C (+2.4)
28.0°C (+3.1)
11 Apr (lead 2)
26.0°C (+1.1)
27.1°C (+2.2)
27.0°C (+2.1)
12 Apr (lead 1)
24.6°C (-0.3)
27.1°C (+2.2)
27.0°C (+2.1)
13 Apr (lead 0, same day)
24.4°C (-0.5)
27.0°C (+2.1)
27.0°C (+2.1)
Actual
24.9°C
Lead
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
9 Apr (lead 4)
13.1°C (+5.0)
12.9°C (+4.8)
11.0°C (+2.9)
10 Apr (lead 3)
13.0°C (+4.9)
11.1°C (+3.0)
11.0°C (+2.9)
11 Apr (lead 2)
13.5°C (+5.4)
9.7°C (+1.6)
11.0°C (+2.9)
12 Apr (lead 1)
15.2°C (+7.1)
9.7°C (+1.6)
11.0°C (+2.9)
13 Apr (lead 0, same day)
13.2°C (+5.1)
8.6°C (+0.5)
9.0°C (+0.9)
Actual
8.1°C
Lead
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
9 Apr (lead 4)
9.6 km/h (-1.2)
13.0 km/h (+2.2)
10.8 km/h (+0.0)
10 Apr (lead 3)
11.4 km/h (+0.6)
14.0 km/h (+3.2)
10.4 km/h (-0.4)
11 Apr (lead 2)
10.8 km/h (-0.1)
13.0 km/h (+2.2)
10.8 km/h (+0.0)
12 Apr (lead 1)
12.8 km/h (+2.0)
14.0 km/h (+3.2)
11.2 km/h (+0.4)
13 Apr (lead 0, same day)
12.7 km/h (+1.9)
16.0 km/h (+5.2)
11.5 km/h (+0.7)
Actual
10.8 km/h
Hourly Temperature (°C)
Rain Probability (%)
Forecast Accuracy — Lead-1 (Day-ahead)
Day-before forecast vs actual station data. Rain listed first (most important). Green = closest. Avg error = average absolute error across all days (lower is better). 1 pt = 0.254 mm. Rain category: % of days where the forecast fell in the same rain band as the actual (none <0.2 mm, trace 0.2–2 mm, light 2–10 mm, moderate 10–25 mm, heavy >25 mm) — higher % is better.
7 days: 6 Apr 2026 – 12 Apr 2026
Metric
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
Rain — avg error
0.0 pts 6/7 days closest
0.0 pts 7/7 days closest
0.0 pts 7/7 days closest
Rain category — correct days
7/7 days (100%)
7/7 days (100%)
7/7 days (100%)
Max Temp — avg error
1.4°C 2/7 days closest
0.8°C 5/7 days closest
0.9°C 3/7 days closest
Min Temp — avg error
2.2°C 0/7 days closest
1.4°C 3/7 days closest
1.1°C 4/7 days closest
Wind avg — avg error
2.8 km/h 2/7 days closest
2.3 km/h 4/7 days closest
3.1 km/h 3/7 days closest
Wind gust — avg error
13.6 km/h 2/7 days closest
10.7 km/h 3/7 days closest
10.4 km/h 4/7 days closest
Day wins
0/7 days
2/7 days
1/7 days
Aeris most accurate overall
30 days: 14 Mar 2026 – 12 Apr 2026
Metric
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
Rain — avg error
2.0 pts 14/30 days closest
0.4 pts 18/30 days closest
0.0 pts 30/30 days closest
Rain category — correct days
18/30 days (60%)
21/27 days (78%)
30/30 days (100%)
Max Temp — avg error
1.7°C 12/30 days closest
1.3°C 9/30 days closest
1.2°C 13/30 days closest
Min Temp — avg error
1.9°C 4/30 days closest
1.5°C 8/30 days closest
1.1°C 19/30 days closest
Wind avg — avg error
3.1 km/h 7/30 days closest
3.3 km/h 7/30 days closest
2.9 km/h 19/30 days closest
Wind gust — avg error
9.8 km/h 19/30 days closest
10.6 km/h 8/30 days closest
11.2 km/h 6/30 days closest
Day wins
5/30 days
3/30 days
13/30 days
BOM most accurate overall
46 days: 26 Feb 2026 – 12 Apr 2026
Metric
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
Rain — avg error
13.4 pts 20/46 days closest
11.8 pts 25/46 days closest
11.0 pts 43/46 days closest
Rain category — correct days
25/45 days (56%)
29/43 days (67%)
42/45 days (93%)
Max Temp — avg error
1.6°C 18/46 days closest
1.2°C 14/46 days closest
1.1°C 20/46 days closest
Min Temp — avg error
1.5°C 10/46 days closest
1.5°C 12/46 days closest
1.1°C 27/46 days closest
Wind avg — avg error
3.0 km/h 15/46 days closest
3.1 km/h 13/46 days closest
3.2 km/h 21/46 days closest
Wind gust — avg error
9.0 km/h 26/46 days closest
10.2 km/h 13/46 days closest
10.4 km/h 11/46 days closest
Day wins
9/46 days
4/46 days
16/46 days
BOM most accurate overall
Forecast Accuracy by Lead Day
Wins out of 6 metrics (Rain MAE, Rain category, Max Temp, Min Temp, Wind avg, Wind gust) at each forecast distance. Click a row for full detail. Green = most wins.
Lead
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
Lead 6 7d ▼ details
1/6
3/6
4/6
7 days · 6th-day-ahead · forecasts made 31 Mar – 6 Apr 2026 · valid 6 Apr – 12 Apr 2026
30 days · 6th-day-ahead · forecasts made 8 Mar – 6 Apr 2026 · valid 14 Mar – 12 Apr 2026
Metric
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
Rain — avg error
2.4 pts 7/30 days closest
1.6 pts 13/30 days closest
0.0 pts 30/30 days closest
Rain category — correct days
14/30 days (47%)
14/27 days (52%)
30/30 days (100%)
Max Temp — avg error
2.0°C 13/30 days closest
1.3°C 12/30 days closest
1.6°C 9/30 days closest
Min Temp — avg error
2.6°C 2/30 days closest
1.7°C 6/30 days closest
1.2°C 22/30 days closest
Wind avg — avg error
4.2 km/h 6/30 days closest
2.9 km/h 13/30 days closest
2.9 km/h 12/30 days closest
Wind gust — avg error
11.4 km/h 15/30 days closest
11.4 km/h 7/30 days closest
11.2 km/h 8/30 days closest
Day wins
2/30 days
8/30 days
16/30 days
BOM most accurate overall
Lead 5 30d ▼ details
1/6
1/6
4/6
30 days · 5th-day-ahead · forecasts made 9 Mar – 7 Apr 2026 · valid 14 Mar – 12 Apr 2026
Metric
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
Rain — avg error
2.0 pts 13/30 days closest
2.0 pts 14/30 days closest
0.0 pts 30/30 days closest
Rain category — correct days
14/30 days (47%)
14/27 days (52%)
30/30 days (100%)
Max Temp — avg error
2.9°C 10/30 days closest
1.2°C 12/30 days closest
1.6°C 10/30 days closest
Min Temp — avg error
2.1°C 4/30 days closest
1.2°C 9/30 days closest
1.1°C 18/30 days closest
Wind avg — avg error
3.5 km/h 10/30 days closest
3.4 km/h 8/30 days closest
2.9 km/h 12/30 days closest
Wind gust — avg error
10.6 km/h 18/30 days closest
12.8 km/h 4/30 days closest
11.2 km/h 8/30 days closest
Day wins
6/30 days
4/30 days
13/30 days
BOM most accurate overall
Lead 4 30d ▼ details
1/6
1/6
4/6
30 days · 4th-day-ahead · forecasts made 10 Mar – 8 Apr 2026 · valid 14 Mar – 12 Apr 2026
Metric
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
Rain — avg error
2.0 pts 13/30 days closest
2.0 pts 16/30 days closest
0.0 pts 30/30 days closest
Rain category — correct days
17/30 days (57%)
18/27 days (67%)
30/30 days (100%)
Max Temp — avg error
2.0°C 14/30 days closest
1.6°C 6/30 days closest
1.5°C 11/30 days closest
Min Temp — avg error
2.1°C 4/30 days closest
1.3°C 8/30 days closest
1.0°C 18/30 days closest
Wind avg — avg error
3.2 km/h 10/30 days closest
2.8 km/h 11/30 days closest
2.9 km/h 9/30 days closest
Wind gust — avg error
9.9 km/h 20/30 days closest
13.4 km/h 3/30 days closest
11.2 km/h 8/30 days closest
Day wins
8/30 days
2/30 days
10/30 days
BOM most accurate overall
Lead 3 30d ▼ details
1/6
0/6
5/6
30 days · 3rd-day-ahead · forecasts made 11 Mar – 9 Apr 2026 · valid 14 Mar – 12 Apr 2026
Metric
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
Rain — avg error
1.6 pts 15/30 days closest
1.6 pts 15/30 days closest
0.0 pts 30/30 days closest
Rain category — correct days
18/30 days (60%)
20/27 days (74%)
30/30 days (100%)
Max Temp — avg error
1.8°C 13/30 days closest
1.5°C 7/30 days closest
1.4°C 10/30 days closest
Min Temp — avg error
2.3°C 4/30 days closest
1.4°C 7/30 days closest
1.1°C 20/30 days closest
Wind avg — avg error
3.1 km/h 9/30 days closest
3.1 km/h 9/30 days closest
2.9 km/h 12/30 days closest
Wind gust — avg error
9.9 km/h 19/30 days closest
12.3 km/h 5/30 days closest
11.2 km/h 7/30 days closest
Day wins
8/30 days
2/30 days
11/30 days
BOM most accurate overall
Lead 2 30d ▼ details
1/6
0/6
5/6
30 days · 2nd-day-ahead · forecasts made 12 Mar – 10 Apr 2026 · valid 14 Mar – 12 Apr 2026
Metric
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
Rain — avg error
1.6 pts 15/30 days closest
1.2 pts 17/30 days closest
0.0 pts 30/30 days closest
Rain category — correct days
16/30 days (53%)
20/27 days (74%)
30/30 days (100%)
Max Temp — avg error
2.0°C 10/30 days closest
1.3°C 13/30 days closest
1.2°C 8/30 days closest
Min Temp — avg error
2.1°C 7/30 days closest
1.5°C 6/30 days closest
1.1°C 17/30 days closest
Wind avg — avg error
3.5 km/h 3/30 days closest
3.2 km/h 11/30 days closest
2.9 km/h 18/30 days closest
Wind gust — avg error
9.7 km/h 19/30 days closest
11.4 km/h 6/30 days closest
11.2 km/h 9/30 days closest
Day wins
2/30 days
4/30 days
12/30 days
BOM most accurate overall
Lead 1 30d ▼ details
1/6
0/6
5/6
30 days · 1st-day-ahead · forecasts made 13 Mar – 11 Apr 2026 · valid 14 Mar – 12 Apr 2026
Metric
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
Rain — avg error
2.0 pts 14/30 days closest
0.4 pts 18/30 days closest
0.0 pts 30/30 days closest
Rain category — correct days
18/30 days (60%)
21/27 days (78%)
30/30 days (100%)
Max Temp — avg error
1.7°C 12/30 days closest
1.3°C 9/30 days closest
1.2°C 13/30 days closest
Min Temp — avg error
1.9°C 4/30 days closest
1.5°C 8/30 days closest
1.1°C 19/30 days closest
Wind avg — avg error
3.1 km/h 7/30 days closest
3.3 km/h 7/30 days closest
2.9 km/h 19/30 days closest
Wind gust — avg error
9.8 km/h 19/30 days closest
10.6 km/h 8/30 days closest
11.2 km/h 6/30 days closest
Day wins
5/30 days
3/30 days
13/30 days
BOM most accurate overall
Lead 0 (same day) 30d ▼ details
3/6
0/6
3/6
30 days · same-day forecasts (14 Mar – 12 Apr 2026)
Metric
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
Rain — avg error
1.2 pts 19/30 days closest
0.4 pts 22/30 days closest
0.0 pts 30/30 days closest
Rain category — correct days
19/30 days (63%)
23/27 days (85%)
30/30 days (100%)
Max Temp — avg error
1.3°C 13/30 days closest
1.4°C 4/30 days closest
1.4°C 14/30 days closest
Min Temp — avg error
1.8°C 5/30 days closest
1.7°C 8/30 days closest
1.1°C 17/30 days closest
Wind avg — avg error
2.8 km/h 11/30 days closest
3.1 km/h 7/30 days closest
2.9 km/h 12/30 days closest
Wind gust — avg error
10.5 km/h 18/30 days closest
10.9 km/h 9/30 days closest
11.2 km/h 6/30 days closest
Day wins
9/30 days
1/30 days
11/30 days
BOM most accurate overall
Click a row to expand full metric detail.
Lead
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
Lead 6 41d ▼ details
2/6
1/6
3/6
41 days · 6th-day-ahead · forecasts made 25 Feb – 6 Apr 2026 · valid 3 Mar – 12 Apr 2026
Metric
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
Rain — avg error
19.7 pts 11/40 days closest
22.0 pts 14/40 days closest
20.9 pts 35/40 days closest
Rain category — correct days
14/40 days (35%)
14/37 days (38%)
36/40 days (90%)
Max Temp — avg error
2.2°C 17/40 days closest
1.5°C 17/40 days closest
1.8°C 11/40 days closest
Min Temp — avg error
2.1°C 7/40 days closest
1.6°C 9/40 days closest
1.2°C 24/40 days closest
Wind avg — avg error
4.6 km/h 7/40 days closest
4.1 km/h 18/40 days closest
3.1 km/h 16/40 days closest
Wind gust — avg error
10.2 km/h 20/40 days closest
11.0 km/h 9/40 days closest
11.2 km/h 11/40 days closest
Day wins
5/40 days
10/40 days
18/40 days
BOM most accurate overall
Lead 5 42d ▼ details
2/6
2/6
3/6
42 days · 5th-day-ahead · forecasts made 25 Feb – 7 Apr 2026 · valid 2 Mar – 12 Apr 2026
Metric
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
Rain — avg error
12.2 pts 17/42 days closest
19.7 pts 16/42 days closest
18.9 pts 37/42 days closest
Rain category — correct days
17/41 days (41%)
16/39 days (41%)
37/41 days (90%)
Max Temp — avg error
2.8°C 13/42 days closest
1.4°C 18/42 days closest
1.7°C 13/42 days closest
Min Temp — avg error
1.8°C 6/42 days closest
1.1°C 15/42 days closest
1.1°C 22/42 days closest
Wind avg — avg error
4.0 km/h 13/42 days closest
4.2 km/h 12/42 days closest
3.1 km/h 17/42 days closest
Wind gust — avg error
9.7 km/h 24/42 days closest
11.6 km/h 8/42 days closest
11.0 km/h 10/42 days closest
Day wins
9/42 days
8/42 days
16/42 days
BOM most accurate overall
Lead 4 43d ▼ details
2/6
1/6
4/6
43 days · 4th-day-ahead · forecasts made 25 Feb – 8 Apr 2026 · valid 1 Mar – 12 Apr 2026
Metric
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
Rain — avg error
14.6 pts 17/43 days closest
17.3 pts 20/43 days closest
16.9 pts 38/43 days closest
Rain category — correct days
19/42 days (45%)
23/40 days (57%)
38/42 days (90%)
Max Temp — avg error
2.2°C 18/43 days closest
1.6°C 10/43 days closest
1.6°C 16/43 days closest
Min Temp — avg error
1.8°C 7/43 days closest
1.2°C 14/43 days closest
1.0°C 22/43 days closest
Wind avg — avg error
4.0 km/h 10/43 days closest
3.7 km/h 14/43 days closest
3.1 km/h 19/43 days closest
Wind gust — avg error
9.4 km/h 26/43 days closest
12.3 km/h 6/43 days closest
11.0 km/h 12/43 days closest
Day wins
10/43 days
5/43 days
15/43 days
BOM most accurate overall
Lead 3 44d ▼ details
2/6
1/6
4/6
44 days · 3rd-day-ahead · forecasts made 25 Feb – 9 Apr 2026 · valid 28 Feb – 12 Apr 2026
Metric
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
Rain — avg error
5.1 pts 18/44 days closest
16.9 pts 21/44 days closest
15.7 pts 39/44 days closest
Rain category — correct days
21/43 days (49%)
26/41 days (63%)
39/43 days (91%)
Max Temp — avg error
2.0°C 17/44 days closest
1.5°C 12/44 days closest
1.5°C 15/44 days closest
Min Temp — avg error
1.9°C 10/44 days closest
1.4°C 8/44 days closest
1.1°C 27/44 days closest
Wind avg — avg error
3.7 km/h 10/44 days closest
3.3 km/h 15/44 days closest
3.1 km/h 19/44 days closest
Wind gust — avg error
8.9 km/h 28/44 days closest
11.6 km/h 6/44 days closest
10.8 km/h 11/44 days closest
Day wins
10/44 days
4/44 days
18/44 days
BOM most accurate overall
Lead 2 45d ▼ details
2/6
2/6
3/6
45 days · 2nd-day-ahead · forecasts made 25 Feb – 10 Apr 2026 · valid 27 Feb – 12 Apr 2026
Metric
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
Rain — avg error
11.0 pts 20/45 days closest
16.5 pts 24/45 days closest
13.0 pts 41/45 days closest
Rain category — correct days
20/44 days (45%)
26/42 days (62%)
43/44 days (98%)
Max Temp — avg error
1.9°C 15/45 days closest
1.3°C 19/45 days closest
1.3°C 13/45 days closest
Min Temp — avg error
1.7°C 13/45 days closest
1.4°C 9/45 days closest
1.0°C 23/45 days closest
Wind avg — avg error
3.8 km/h 6/45 days closest
2.9 km/h 20/45 days closest
3.2 km/h 21/45 days closest
Wind gust — avg error
8.9 km/h 27/45 days closest
11.1 km/h 6/45 days closest
10.6 km/h 16/45 days closest
Day wins
3/45 days
5/45 days
19/45 days
BOM most accurate overall
Lead 1 46d ▼ details
2/6
0/6
4/6
46 days · 1st-day-ahead · forecasts made 25 Feb – 11 Apr 2026 · valid 26 Feb – 12 Apr 2026
Metric
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
Rain — avg error
13.4 pts 20/46 days closest
11.8 pts 25/46 days closest
11.0 pts 43/46 days closest
Rain category — correct days
25/45 days (56%)
29/43 days (67%)
42/45 days (93%)
Max Temp — avg error
1.6°C 18/46 days closest
1.2°C 14/46 days closest
1.1°C 20/46 days closest
Min Temp — avg error
1.5°C 10/46 days closest
1.5°C 12/46 days closest
1.1°C 27/46 days closest
Wind avg — avg error
3.0 km/h 15/46 days closest
3.1 km/h 13/46 days closest
3.2 km/h 21/46 days closest
Wind gust — avg error
9.0 km/h 26/46 days closest
10.2 km/h 13/46 days closest
10.4 km/h 11/46 days closest
Day wins
9/46 days
4/46 days
16/46 days
BOM most accurate overall
Lead 0 (same day) 47d ▼ details
2/6
1/6
4/6
47 days · same-day forecasts (25 Feb – 12 Apr 2026)
Metric
PirateWeather
Aeris
BOM
Rain — avg error
11.0 pts 27/47 days closest
11.0 pts 30/47 days closest
7.5 pts 42/47 days closest
Rain category — correct days
28/46 days (61%)
33/44 days (75%)
43/46 days (93%)
Max Temp — avg error
1.5°C 17/47 days closest
1.2°C 13/47 days closest
1.2°C 20/47 days closest
Min Temp — avg error
1.5°C 15/47 days closest
1.6°C 11/47 days closest
1.0°C 21/47 days closest
Wind avg — avg error
2.8 km/h 18/47 days closest
3.3 km/h 15/47 days closest
3.2 km/h 15/47 days closest
Wind gust — avg error
9.7 km/h 25/47 days closest
10.4 km/h 14/47 days closest
10.3 km/h 12/47 days closest
Day wins
12/47 days
4/47 days
15/47 days
BOM most accurate overall
Click a row to expand full metric detail.
Forecast Evolution
How each model's forecast for a day changed as that day got closer. Lead-4 = 4 days before, Lead-0 = same day. Last column is actual station data. Green = closest to actual. Red = furthest away. No colour = middle.